ChatGPT Oracle
- Rank
- #48
- Score
- 647
- Tier
- Starter
Dynasty Oracle v5.0: starter-value; format-sensitive QB value backed by role security and production; contender 756, rebuild 643.
KC QB
Dynasty Player Profile
Patrick Mahomes
KC · QBAge 306'2"225 lbs9 NFL seasonsTexas TechQB1Questionable
Patrick Mahomes is a KC QB (age 30) with Dynasty Spec rank #44 and QB rank #3. The AI consensus rank #44 with score 647, High Disagreement, and up 3 spots this week point to a volatile dynasty profile. Market-adjusted profile balances shorter dynasty runway, role security, and recent production signal.
Recommendation
Hold
The profile is close to fair market value, making roster direction and format more important than a blanket buy or sell call.
- Age
- 30
- Dynasty Rank
- #44
- QB Rank
- #3
- Trade Value
- 627
- Superflex Value
- 775
- 1QB Value
- 627
- Consensus Score
- 647
- Value Trend
- Volatile
- 7-Day Rank
- +3 spots
- 7-Day Value
- -81 pts
AI Engine Scores
Gemini Apex
- Rank
- #57
- Score
- 618
- Tier
- Starter
Apex Sovereign 12: starter-value; format-sensitive QB value backed by role security and production; contender 736, rebuild 633. Apex Sovereign uses passing, mistake, rushing, role-security, market, and VORP evidence; usable floor.
Claude Helix
- Rank
- #36
- Score
- 677
- Tier
- Core Asset
Claude Helix v5.0 contextual/upside lens: starter-value; format-sensitive QB value backed by role security and production; contender 775, rebuild 653.
Consensus rank #44 with High Disagreement and rank spread 21.
Outlook & Market Movement
Patrick Mahomes's team context is KC at QB. Depth chart: QB1. Current injury status: Questionable. Latest imported season: 2025, 296.66 PPR points and 21.19 fantasy points per game. Projection snapshot: 2026 257.89 projected PPR points.
Production
Career Stats
PPR scoring · newest season first
| Season | GP | PPR | FPPG | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14 | 296.7 | 21.2 | 3,587 | 22 | 11 | 422 | 5 |
| 2024 | 16 | 283.0 | 17.7 | 3,928 | 26 | 11 | 307 | 2 |
| 2023 | 16 | 280.2 | 17.5 | 4,183 | 27 | 14 | 389 | 0 |
| 2022 | 17 | 417.4 | 24.6 | 5,250 | 41 | 12 | 358 | 4 |
| 2021 | 17 | 361.7 | 21.3 | 4,839 | 37 | 13 | 381 | 2 |
| 2020 | 15 | 374.4 | 25.0 | 4,740 | 38 | 6 | 308 | 2 |
| 2019 | 14 | 287.0 | 20.5 | 4,031 | 26 | 5 | 218 | 2 |
| 2018 | 16 | 417.1 | 26.1 | 5,097 | 50 | 12 | 272 | 2 |
| Career | 125 | 2,717.5 | 21.7 | 35,655 | 267 | 84 | 2,655 | 19 |
Forward View
2026 Projection
PPR · High confidence
| Season | PPR | FPPG | Pass Yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush Yds | Rush TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 257.9 | 17.5 | 3,564 | 21 | 11 | 348 | 3 |
Based on weighted production from 2025, 2024, 2023 with QB age 30-34 career years 6-8 elite curve applied from strong 31-sample trend.
Dynasty Authority Report
Dynasty Outlook, Trade Fit & Risk
Data-backed player notes from ranking value, AI engine spread, trade value, age, team, and recent movement.
Dynasty Outlook
Patrick Mahomes sits #44 overall and #3 at QB with a Dynasty Spec trade value of 627. The current recommendation is Hold, driven by the profile is close to fair market value, making roster direction and format more important than a blanket buy or sell call.
- Dynasty Rank
- #44
- Trade Value
- 627
Short-Term Outlook
Patrick Mahomes's near-term profile is tied to KC usage at QB. The latest imported season shows 21.19 PPR points per game. Current movement is up 3 spots this week.
- Team
- KC
- Recent Movement
- Up 3 spots this week
Long-Term Outlook
Patrick Mahomes's long-term value combines age 30, position scarcity, and AI consensus score 647. The long-term case is best judged against similar-value players because the current value is close to the broader market tier.
- Age
- 30
- Consensus Score
- 647
Contender Fit
Patrick Mahomes is a contender fit when the acquisition cost stays near 627 and does not require moving a more stable weekly starter.
- 1QB Value
- 627
- Superflex Value
- 775
Rebuilder Fit
Patrick Mahomes can fit rebuilders at fair cost, but the decision should be tied to timeline because the current profile is labeled Hold.
- Value Trend
- Volatile
- Position Rank
- #3
Trade Value Analysis
Patrick Mahomes's fair-market baseline is 627 with Superflex value 775 and 1QB value 627. Use the trade calculator when a package adds picks or multiple players because consolidation changes the value gap.
- Trade Value
- 627
- Market Value
- 5,785
Risk Factors
Patrick Mahomes's main risk factors: AI rank spread is 21.
- AI Spread
- 21
- Agreement
- High Disagreement
Upside Case
Patrick Mahomes's upside case is that the high engine rank (#36) is closer to the truth than consensus #44, pushing the market toward the top of the current value tier.
- Best Engine Rank
- #36
- Consensus
- #44
Floor Case
Patrick Mahomes's floor case is that the low engine rank (#57) catches a role, age, or liquidity risk that consensus is not fully pricing yet.
- Worst Engine Rank
- #57
- Trend
- Volatile
AI Engine Disagreement Summary
Patrick Mahomes's AI engine range is 21 spots. Patrick Mahomes is a comparison-page candidate because the AI range is wide enough that a nearby player or pick can swing the trade.
- ChatGPT
- #48
- Gemini
- #57
- Claude
- #36
Ranking Trend History
Patrick Mahomes is currently #44 after being #47 in the previous weekly snapshot. That is a 3-spot rise.
- Current Rank
- #44
- Previous Rank
- #47
- Value Change
- -81
Comparable Players
Related Trade Targets
Trade Calculator
Price Patrick Mahomes before making an offer
Use Patrick Mahomes's Dynasty Spec value, format setting, and package size before adding picks or changing tiers.
FAQs
What is Patrick Mahomes's dynasty value?
Patrick Mahomes carries a Dynasty Spec trade value of 627, with a Superflex value of 775 and a 1QB value of 627.
Should I trade for Patrick Mahomes in dynasty?
Hold or trade only near fair market value. The profile is close to fair market value, making roster direction and format more important than a blanket buy or sell call.
Is Patrick Mahomes a buy or sell?
Patrick Mahomes is labeled Hold because the current profile combines up 3 spots this week, High Disagreement, and position rank #3.
What is Patrick Mahomes worth in Superflex?
Patrick Mahomes's Superflex value is 775. That places him at #44 overall and #3 among QBs in the Dynasty Spec board.
How does Patrick Mahomes compare to similar players?
Patrick Mahomes is closest in Dynasty Spec value to Jalen Hurts, who is also a QB with a trade value of 590. Use the comparison page for the side-by-side gap.